New England Patriots Year in Review
A masterful offseason by Bill Belichick retooled the Patriots roster for 2021 and beyond
Patriots fans, do you remember this time a year ago?
Year 1 without Tom Brady, no fans in the stands, a ton of opt outs… and a less than compelling product on the field.
We knew life without Tom would be tough, but 6-9 heading into Week 17, losing to Buffalo on MNF in disappointing fashion the week prior, sealing an AFC East title for the Bills… it was not fun.
Many were less than hopeful, but I wrote back at Hold My Drink Sports why there was reason for faith and optimism, and it all started with Bill Belichick.
Well, Bill answered the call. It was an unorthodox offseason for Belichick, but with an unprecedented amount of cap space, even more so relative to the rest of the teams in the NFL, The Hoodie went on a spending spree, bringing in names that would become key fixtures for the 2021 Patriots, such as Matt Judon, Hunter Henry and Kendrick Bourne.
Former Patriots such as Trent Brown (via trade) and Kyle Van Noy found their way back to New England.
Belichick capped off the offseason in the 2021 NFL Draft, using the 15th overall pick to select the next QB for the team, Mac Jones. He also drafted Christian Barmore (2nd round) and Rhamondre Stevenson (4th round). Those three would become immediate contributors their rookie seasons.
There was a QB competition in training camp, as Cam Newton initially returned to the Patriots, but rookie Mac Jones beat him out, and Newton was cut (to the shock of many) prior to Week 1.
After a slow 2-4 start to the 2021 season (including a loss against Brady’s Buccaneers), it seemed like 2021 was destined to be similar to 2020: a rebuilding season planting the seeds for the future. But Bill had just gone all-in during the offseason, how was this possible!?
Some things take time.
The Patriots proceeded to win their next 7 games, climbing out of the playoff cellar to the top of the AFC. Suddenly, the Patriots looked like the machine we had all become accustomed to between 2001 and 2019. Unfortunately the team lost their next 2 games, and heading into Week 17 of this 18-week season, the team is 9-6.
They no longer control their own destiny for the division, but they currently sit as the 6th seed in the playoff standings, with strong odds of returning to the playoffs after a one year absence.
The future is looking bright in Foxborough.
According to Doug Keyd of Pro Football Focus, rookie QB Mac Jones has a WAR of 2.35. On December 23, Keyd’s colleague at PFF Eric Eagar said Jones had a WAR of 2.46, but more interestingly he noted that Jones had produced a “surplus value” of “about $22 million.”
That made me very, very happy.
Mac Jones isn’t Tom Brady, but he brings advantages to a Patriots team looking to reach the mountain top without number 12 in the future.
The reason he is able to produce so much surplus value is because he is on a rookie contract. According to Spotrac, Jones’s cap hit for 2021 is just over $2.8 million. If he is producing over $20 million in surplus value, that means he is playing as if he should earn nearly $23 million on the open market, according to PFF.
He’s doing this as a rookie. The hope is he continues to develop and grow as the years go on. Under the leadership of Bill Belichick, as well as offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels (assuming McDaniels does not get a head coaching gig elsewhere), Mac is in as good of a position that a young signal caller can be in.
His cap hits for the next 3 seasons (the remainder of his rookie deal), per Spotrac, are as follows:
2022: $3.5 million
2023: $4.2 million
2024: $4.9 million
Quarterback is the most important position for a football team, and since the CBA agreement of 2011 (which created a rookie wage scale), teams that have found a capable QB on a rookie deal have found a formula to Super Bowl contention.
The Seahawks in 2013 and 2014 with Russell Wilson; the Eagles in 2017 with Carson Wentz (although Wentz did not play in the playoffs for Philly, his low cap number still helped the team for the season); the Rams in 2018 with Jared Goff; the Chiefs in 2019 and 2020 with Patrick Mahomes.
These teams were able to benefit from a team-building standpoint because their QB was on a rookie deal, producing surplus value (like Jones). Since the QB was being underpaid relative to his market performance, the team could allocate more money across the roster to other needs. Roster building is all about surplus value, you need it to win a championship.
Look no further than Tom Brady.
During the back half of the Patriots dynasty, Brady took below market contracts. This allowed him to create further surplus value for the Patriots, while the team allocated the funds for the remainder of the team. This is why it is hard for the top paid QBs in the league to win a title.
Do not take that as me saying they do not deserved to get paid, they earned those paychecks and sports is a business for the individuals participating. Still, when looking through the team lens, it becomes difficult to build as well when the star QB gets paid. It makes the margin for error very thin across the board while giving you less resources. The draft picks become worse due to making the playoffs consistently (as teams with star QBs tend to do), and since you have less money to spend in FA, it makes it that much more important to find hits in the draft in order to keep creating surplus value.
All of this is a long way of saying that with Jones under center for the next 3 seasons, as long as he continues to progress and the Patriots stay fiscally responsible, the team will have a huge advantage with the surplus value he can create.
This offseason the Patriots will have decisions to make regarding star CB J.C. Jackson (wanna talk about surplus value, he was undrafted!) as well as long time Patriot Devin McCourty.
They are currently set to have $31 million at their disposal according to Spotrac, but ideally most of that will go towards extensions.
Many of the core pieces on this current team will return next season, as a rebuild like last offseason will not be necessary.
Heading into Week 17 of the 2021 season, the Patriots boast the top scoring defense in the NFL and have allowed the third fewest yards in the league. On offense they have scored the 11th most points in the league (up from 27th last season), and gained the 17th most yards (also up from 27th last season).
They don’t play sexy football by any means, but it wins games. With the possibility of winning 11 games and heading back to the playoffs, having core pieces locked in moving forward, this is night and day compared to the situation a year ago.
… And if you ask Bill Belichick, he might tell you he’s just getting started with this group.