Just How Good is this Version of Tom Brady?
Has Tom Brady played the best football of his career his past 16 games?
It never amazes me how often we do this.
He’s 44 years old yet keeps playing top-notch football.
No, not last week per say, but if we take a step back… Brady’s last 16 games have been nothing short of spectacular.
Lets set the scene at the beginning of this stretch.
It’s December 13, 2020, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are about to host the Minnesota Vikings. Tampa is 7-5, coming off their bye week. Tom Brady hasn’t been bad by any means, but the team is out of the race to win the NFC South and holding the 6th seed in the NFC, facing a 6-6 Minnesota team holding the 7th seed in the playoff standings. Lose to Minnesota and suddenly you’re on the verge of falling out of the playoff race entirely.
Luckily that would not happen. Tampa beat Minnesota 26-14, while Brady went 15-for-23, passing for 196 yards and 2 TD (120.9 passer rating). It was an important win, but it was the start of an incredible stretch for Brady.
Tampa would not lose a game the rest of the regular season.
The next three weeks at Atlanta, at Detroit and hosting Atlanta, Brady went 79-for-113, passing for 1137 yards, 10 TD an 1 INT (128.1 passer rating).
Tampa would finish the 2020 season with an 11-5 record and as the 5th seed in the NFC.
In the playoffs Tampa played three road games before technically hosting Super Bowl LV, and during these four games Brady went 81-for-138, passing for 1061 yards, 10 TD and 3 INT (98.1 passer rating). People will point to an ugly second half against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, but he was spectacular in the first half, so it balances out to a so-so game. Regardless, an 8-game stretch to finish 2020 where Brady was on fire.
It continued in 2021.
Through 8 games this season, Brady is on an MVP pace. He was gone 231-for-343, passing for 2650 yards, 25 TD and 5 INT (108.6 passer rating). He’s on pace to pass for over 50 TD for the second time in his career (remember this season is 17 games).
Now lets add it all together.
Starting with the Vikings game through last Sunday, Brady’s stats are as followed:
406-for-617 (65.8%)
5044 yards (315.3 Y/G)
47 TD (7.6 TD%)
9 INT (1.5 INT%)
110.3 passer rating
8.2 Y/A
9.0 AY/A
0.324 EPA/play
Just stellar numbers. The Bucs as a team have scored 531 points (33.2 PPG) during this time, and have had a 14-2 record. Take those 531 points over the course of a season and it would be tied for the 11th most in NFL history with the 2019 Baltimore Ravens (tied for 12th highest PPG in NFL history).
Interestingly enough, Tom Brady has led two of the 10 highest scoring offenses in NFL history: 2007 New England Patriots (589 points, 36.8 PPG) and 2012 New England Patriots (557 points, 34.8 PPG).
You might remember Brady threw for 50 TD in 2007, leading the Patriots to a 16-0 regular season record. Lets also remember that 2007 Patriots offense stands as the second best in NFL history to this day behind the 2013 Denver Broncos.
In 2012 the Patriots went 12-4 under Brady, and featured a deep arsenal with the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd, Danny Woodhead and Julian Edelman. Steven Ridley also rushed for 1263 yards, the second highest regular season total for a RB playing with Tom Brady (behind Corey Dillon in 2004, who rushed for 1635 yards). A lesser appreciated group, but still potent nevertheless.
Who have been the key figures for Tom Brady during this most recent stretch? Some names you’ve probably heard of before:
Chris Godwin - 82 catches, 1170 yards and 9 TD (16 games played)
Mike Evans - 72 catches, 1141 yards and 12 TD (16 games played)
Antonio Brown - 62 catches, 814 yards and 10 TD (12 games played)
Rob Gronkwoski - 32 catches, 412 yards and 9 TD (12 games played)
Evans, Godwin and Brown are each averaging over 67.0 Y/G; Evans, Brown and Gronk are each averaging 0.75 TD per game.
The only 2 games the Bucs have lost the past 16 games, Antonio Brown was been inactive and Gronk was limited due to injury.
This is probably the most help at receiver Brady has in his career. Add in Gronk and someone like Leonard Fournette, who has rushed for 835 yards (55.7 Y/G) and 10 TD and had 56 catches for 449 yards and 1 TD (15 games played) during this stretch, you can’t ask for anything more.
Some will argue Brady is being propped up by superstar teammates, while others will say if the Patriots gave him ANYTHING at the end of his time in New England he could have been doing the same thing there and would have never left.
I’m not here to argue either side.
I just think it’s remarkable that at 43 and 44, if you graded these past 16 games for Brady against other seasons during his career, his 7.6 TD% would be the second highest of his career, his 110.3 passer rating would be the 4th highest of his career, his 8.2 Y/A would be tied for the 3rd highest of his career, and his 315.3 Y/G would be the 3rd highest of his career (2nd highest if you remove the 331.3 Y/G he has had this season).
These numbers rival his 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2016 seasons. He won MVP in 2007 and 2010 and finished 2nd in 2016 (there was some stiff competition in 2011 with historic seasons from Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees).
There’s no denying Tom Brady is still elite. It might not have been possible to build an offense this talented in New England, but as football fans we should appreciate we still get to watch him perform at this level.
It’s special, don’t take it for granted.