It seems like just yesterday I was sitting here writing about how crazy the idea of trading Jaylen Brown was, fighting off a war of words from every which way that this team was destined to fail.
That was January 4.
The next day, Jayson Tatum returned from COVID protocols, but the C’s lost at home to the Spurs, then on the road to the Knicks 24 hours later. It seemed like an all-but-too-familiar trend of heartbreaking losses taking away from any cause for optimism. Even though Jaylen Brown had put up 50 points on Sunday, by Thursday it was the same old same old, as the team stood at 18-21 after the loss at MSG.
Little did we know things were about to take a massive 180.
There’s a little debate over when things began to get rocking for Boston. Some on the team point to a December 31 win against the league-best Phoenix Suns. Others point to the game after the heartbreaking loss to the Knicks. Others (including me) point to a win against the Wizards on January 23.
That seems like the day to me.
January 23 was the day Marcus Smart returned from COVID protocols, playing his first game since January 10. His return signaled just the 13th time all season the Celtics starting 5 was him, Tatum, Brown, Al Horford and Robert Williams. The previous 12 games they all started the team was just 7-5. A closer look reveals the C’s lost their first 3 games with this starting 5, but went 7-2 the next 9 games the starting lineup was used, with the 2 losses being the games discussed above against the Spurs and Knicks.
Beginning January 23, the starting 5 would be the same for 22 of the next 27 games for the Celtics. In those 22 games, Boston has gone 20-2 (.909), meaning the last 31 games the unit has started (dating back to November 3), the C’s have gone 27-4 (.871).
Well… like I said on January 4, “just let these guys stay healthy for a few months and see what happens.”
Never would I have expected this!
Digging deeper into the numbers, as of March 26, the unit has played 443 minutes together over 34 games, putting up an offensive rating of 118.8, and an astonishing defensive rating of 94.2, good for a net rating of 24.6.
Of lineups to play at least 200 minutes together this season, the C’s go to starting 5 is just ahead of the Sixers new starting 5 of Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris and Matisse Thybulle, who boast a net rating of 24.0.
No other 5-man combo to play at least 200 minutes together has a net rating above 17.0.
I think it’s funny that through the back and forth about why this team was struggling to start the year, it really seems shockingly simple what the problem was: each of the 5 best players on the team kept missing games (some more than others). We seemed to be banging our heads against the wall, but the reality was no continuity was forming with this group.
The “supporting cast” forming around the Jays we feared wasn’t enough, ultimately had good pieces in Smart, Rob and Al… when they all played. You also had Grant Williams (more on him later). Josh Richardson played admirably while he was here… then you had the rest.
Dennis Schroder was not enough; Romeo Langford (another oft-injured player) never found his groove here; Enes Kanter sucked; Pritchard struggled early on; Nesmith has never gotten his footing. After that it’s a bunch of similar stories (excluding ISO JOE JOHNSON).
But as we enter the final surge of the season, the continuity that has formed with the starting 5 has extended to the bench.
Schroder, Richardson, Langford and Kanter are gone.
Enter Derrick White and old friend Daniel Theis.
White was a home run acquisition by Brad Stevens, a solid player on both ends during his career in San Antonio (see: another old friend of Ime Udoka) that gave the Celtics an additional reliable role player to their core (and he’s signed long term). You all know Daniel Theis, having him adds to the team’s frontcourt depth; just think 2 years ago he was your starting center and now he is considered insurance.
Those two join Grant Williams, who has become one of the most reliable 3 and D players in the entire league. I remember dreaming he would become our version of PJ Tucker… and that’s exactly what has happened. He went from having no three point shot in the early days of his rookie year to becoming a 42% three point shooter this season (48% on corner 3s). I was really down on Grant after last season and thought he just was not cut out for the league, but that was a major mistake on my part and I’m sorry. It’s come out that the team wanted him to bulk up for last season for a role as a big… but he never saw significant minutes as a big. Grant said the weight he gained was as if he was playing with a 15-pound backpack. Now with that weight gone and a role he’s accustomed to in the NBA, we’re seeing The Batman prosper.
Finally you have Payton Pritchard, who struggled to get into the rotation earlier this season. However, since the All-Star Break, Pritchard has played 17.4 MPG and is averaging 9.6 PPG while shooting 53.8% from the field and 50.7% from three! He has earned Ime Udoka’s trust, improving his defense, and has given the team a 9th player they can seem to rely on on a given night.
Things are clicking… but lets go back to why I said January 23 was the day it all changed for the better.
Yes, the team is 23-4 since then… 20-2 when the main starting 5 starts and 23-3 when Marcus Smart plays… but look at Jayson Tatum’s numbers since then:
29.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 5.0 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG
50.3 FG% - 41.2 3P% - 88.8 FT% (64.4 TS%)
15.9 +/- per game
9.1 BPM
Tatum was in one of the worst slumps of his career to start the season, there’s no getting around it… but now we are seeing the best peak play of his career, a level of play that is putting him in MVP conversations. He is playing as good at the Jokics, Embiids and Antetokounmpos of the world.
If anyone has benefitted from the continuity of the starting 5, it’s Tatum. It has allowed him to regain his 2020 form on defense in addition to ascending as a playmaker, leaps we’ve seen the past 2 seasons but becoming further maximized given his surroundings.
I’ll say this, I genuinely cannot remember a time I’ve ever felt this confident about this team. We’ve seen the core of the Jays and Smart win 5 playoff series since 2018, no small feat, but this is different. It’s not even that guys like Tatum and Smart are playing the best basketball of their careers, it’s just… the pieces fit… so well.
Ben Taylor (highly recommend you consume his work!) describes the surge we have seen from Boston, and the point hitting home to me is how well the defense is playing together.
Going back to the days of Isaiah Thomas, the Celtics have had experience hiding the shortcomings of a short guard on defense. Smart was there those days with IT, as was Jaylen Brown. This got better with Kyrie Irving, but with the addition of Kemba Walker two years later it was something the team had to scheme around yet again (now Tatum and Rob were in the picture).
Taylor highlights how those days of playing with a proverbial hand tied behind there back in 2020 have become the foundation of playing from a position of strength.
This foundation on defense was set by Brad Stevens, but Ime Udoka has enhanced it by utilizing Robert Williams as a rover of sorts, sticking him towards the baseline near a non-threatening shooter in the event that if the on-ball action comes downhill, he can fly in and use his elite shot-blocking skills to deter the opposing offense; it’s working miraculously.
The goal for Ime Udoka when he got here was to build around the pillars of this team: Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
We dreamed of what that would look like, and I’m hard pressed to believe the past 2 months haven’t been the perfect encapsulation of it. The versatility on defense, the increased playmaking around on offense. Although Jaylen has not made a leap in playmaking like Tatum, he doesn’t have to! The starting 5 features willing passers all around him and he can focus on being the elite finisher he is. Rob is earning DPOY talk along with Marcus Smart; Smart has finally locked down the lead playmaker role and is thriving. Add in the ever dependable Al Horford, and Grant, White and Theis off the bench… I just love what I’m seeing.
For me, more than 2018 or 2020, this just feels… real. It feels like it’s supposed to feel like. No more looking towards the future, no more bad luck (really trying not to jinx anything here). It has been about patience for awhile with the Jays (crazy given how young they are I know), but now it feels like this is truly… FINALLY… the start of something special…
Maybe the green teamers were right all along to believe in Jayson Tatum, to believe in Jaylen Brown, and to believe in Marcus Smart… the patience is paying off, and as we enter the spring… there’s no reason to believe this play cannot continue into April, May… or June.